Wednesday preview: UK inflation, Barclays Q3 and Reckitt update
By Michele Maatouk
Date: Tuesday 21 Oct 2025
(Sharecast News) - On the corporate front, Barclays will kick off the latest round of UK bank earnings with its third-quarter numbers, with earnings due from Lloyds and NatWest later in the week.
Full-year results from Softcat are also scheduled for release, along with a third-quarter production update from precious metals miner Fresnillo and a Q3 trading update from Reckitt Benckiser.
As far as Reckitt is concerned, UBS said it expects group like-for-like sales growth of 7%, up from 1.9% in the second quarter.
The bank said: "The sequential acceleration should be led by 1) a slight uptick in the company's core business where we anticipate 5.5% LFL (Visible Alpha consensus 5.3%) led by an improvement in both North America and Europe; 2) a marked recovery at Mead Johnson (MJN) which should achieve Q3 LFL of 20% (Visible Alpha consensus 18.8%) as the business annualises last year's supply chain disruption in the US; and 3) a return to positive growth for the Essential Home business (UBSe +3% versus Visible Alpha cons +0.0%) which is in the process of being sold to Advent (deal agreed on July 18th)."
Meanwhile, Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, said investors will be expecting fresh updates on progress on Barclays' three-year plan to revamp its business.
"The programme is designed to reduce reliance on the investment bank - another key question will be whether it's enjoyed the same kind of uplift in trading and investment banking earnings as its big Wall Street rivals," he said.
In Europe, quarterly results are due from SAP, Kering, BASF, Heineken and Carrefour, among others, while US updates will include IBM, AT&T and United Rentals.
On the macro front, UK inflation figures for September are due at 0930 BST.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said the inflation data will be the highlight of the week as far as the UK is concerned, as the September report is expected to see headline CPI rise to 4% - the Bank of England's peak for price growth.
"Upward price pressure is expected to come from fuel prices, while service prices could remain steady at 4.7%," she said.
"This inflation report is unlikely to move the dial for the BoE, who most likely won't cut interest rates next month when headline inflation is at 4%.
"The next rate cut for the UK is not expected until February next year, when CPI should start to moderate, and the UK's monetary easing cycle may not gather speed until early to mid-2026, with the terminal rate currently expected to be just below 3.5% in a year's time."
Brooks pointed out that sterling has been the second most resilient currency in the G10 versus a resurgent USD so far this month.
"The upward pressure on inflation and the prospect of no more rate cuts until 2026 could keep the pound buoyant in the coming months. A break above $1.3475 for GBP/USD, would be a bullish development in the short term," she said.
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