China exports spark ahead of looming trade deadline
By Abigail Townsend
Date: Monday 14 Jul 2025
(Sharecast News) - Chinese exports jumped in June, official data showed on Monday, as companies took advantage of a temporary ceasefire in the country's trade war with Washington.
According to the General Administration of Customs, exports rose 5.8% last month, a gain on May's 4.8% rise and more than the 5% expected.
Goods sold into the US remained in negative territory, down 16.1%. But that was still a significant improvement on May's 34.5% slump.
Among individual sectors, rare earth exports sparked 32%, following a number of agreements signed last month intended to improve global trade in the important metals.
Global imports rose 1.1%, below consensus for 1.3% but a notable improvement on May's 3.4% decline. It was also the first rise since December.
The balance of trade was $114.7bn, down on May's $103.22bn. For the first half, it was $586bn, around $150.8bn higher than the comparable period in 2024.
Donald Trump imposed swingeing tariffs on China in April, part of his aggressive approach to international trade. Hostilities then escalated after Beijing responded with its own stringent duties.
However, the two economies - the world's largest - struck a 90-day ceasefire in May. The US agreed to cut the most recent round of tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145%, while Beijing lowered its duties to 10% from 125%.
Since then, companies have rushed to take advantage of the improved rates ahead of the deal coming to an end in August.
At the time, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessant said: "We want more balanced trade, and I think both sides are committed to achieving that. Neither side wants a decoupling."
Talks between the two countries have continued, though so far there is no indication a longer-term deal has been struck.
Looking to the rest of the year, Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China, at ING, said: "How the tariff negotiations between China and the US progress will obviously be a big wildcard. It remains unclear if the 12 August deadline remains in place, or if it has been pushed back indefinitely after the agreements made in the past couple of the months.
"The nature of other countries' deals - or lack thereof - with the US will also have a ripple effect on China.
"Considering the first half data also benefited from a wave of trade frontloading in the first quarter, we tend to err on the side of caution when looking at the second half. But even a low single digit annual growth for exports will translate to a smaller drag on 2025 growth than what the market feared at the start of the year."
China is due to post second-quarter GDP figures on Tuesday and analysts will be keen to see if Beijing remains on track to meet its 2025 growth target of around 5%. As well as political pressure on exports, the country is also battling weak domestic consumption.
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