Research Plus

Weekly review

By Josh White

Date: Friday 15 Aug 2025

(Sharecast News) - The FTSE 100 ended the week up 43.17 points, or 0.47%, closing at 9,138.90 on Friday.
Equity view

MSQ Partners has poured cold water over the idea of a potential merger with Martin Sorrell's S4 Capital. In a brief statement Thursday, the company said it had been "surprised" by the speculation and recent announcement regarding a potential merger with S4 Capital. S4 announced Monday that it had received a proposal from MSQ, a creative and technology agency owned by One Equity Partners, about a possible combination.

Oxford Biomedica has raised £60m via a share placing and subcription to expand its US operations, the gene and cell therapy company announced on Friday. A total of 12.21m shares were placed at a price of 431p each, slightly below Thursday's closing price of 439.50p, while certain existing shareholders subscribed for 1.71m shares. In total, the placing and subscription represented 13.1% of the issued share capital of the company.

Kingsmill owner Associated British Foods said Friday that it has agreed to buy Hovis Group from private equity firm Endless for an undisclosed sum. In its interim results, the company said it had been evaluating a range of strategic options for its UK bakery business, Allied Bakeries, at which profitability has been "increasingly challenged" in recent years by a decline in demand for pre-sliced, packaged bread.

Bytes Technology surged on Friday as the software, security, cloud and AI services specialist announced a share buyback programme of up to £25m. The company said its capital allocation policy "prioritises enhancing business growth, both organically and through select inorganic opportunities as they arise, whilst maintaining an appropriate level of liquidity headroom and returning excess capital to shareholders (through normal and special dividends, and share buybacks), where appropriate". It also said the board continuously reviews capital allocation opportunities.

Insurance firm Admiral Group delivered a robust set of interim results on Thursday, with growth in customer numbers and a continued focus on pricing discipline helping to offset sector-wide pressures. Admiral said pre-tax profits from continuing operations jumped 69% to £521.0m, driven by standout performances in UK Motor, Household, and Admiral Money, with insurance revenue rising 18% to £2.47bn and gross loan balances at Admiral Money climbing 25% to £1.28bn. The Cardiff-based insurer highlighted that margins had benefited from falling car insurance prices in the UK across the six months ended 30 June, with its profits in its motor division increasing by 56%.

National Grid said it had sold its Grain LNG terminal to British Gas owner Centrica and US-based Energy Capital Partners, part of Bridgepoint Group, for an enterprise value of £1.5bn. The Isle of Grain is the UK's largest liquefied natural gas importation terminal. National Grid, which owns and operates Britain's high-voltage electricity transmission network, last year it was seeking to sell Grain as it consolidated its business.

Real estate investor Workspace Group revealed Thursday that chief financial officer Dave Benson will step down from the role in 2026. Workspace said chairman Duncan Owen will lead the search for Benson's successor, consulting the Nominations Committee. The FTSE 250-listed firm said it will go through "a formal and rigorous selection process" to identify Benson's successor, with a further announcement on the timing of Benson's departure set to be provided "in due course".

Diploma said Thursday that chief financial officer Chris Davies has resigned with immediate effect. "This decision follows a recent company event where, through a lapse in judgement, his personal behaviour did not meet the high standards required of the group's leadership team," the company said in a brief statement. It said Davies' resignation is unrelated to Diploma's financial performance and the group's guidance for FY25 is unchanged.

Construction and infrastructure products group Hill and Smith has announced a £100m share buyback programme after reporting strong cash generation and a double-digit increase in underlying profits in the first half. The company, which operates a range of brands across the engineering solutions markets in the US, UK and India, along with galvanising services in the US and UK, said underlying operating profit totalled £73.5m over the six months to 30 June, up 11% at constant currencies.

Infrastructure group Balfour Beatty backed its full-year expectations on Wednesday as it posted a jump in first-half profit, underpinned by its UK construction business. In the half year ended 27 June, pre-tax profit rose to £132m from £112m in the same period a year ago, on revenue of £5.2bn, up from £4.7bn. Balfour said the UK construction arm delivered profitable underlying growth to achieve its 3% margin target one year ahead of expectations. The division achieved a 3.6% PFO (profit from operations) margin.

Property investor CLS Holdings reported a mixed first-half performance on Wednesday, with progress on strategic priorities tempered by weaker rental income. Net rental income fell 9.5% year-on-year to £53.3m, reflecting the impact of property disposals and expiries, though CLS said this was partly offset by stronger income from new lettings and renewals. Lettings, on the other hand, rose 17% year-on-year, with management highlighting that momentum had accelerated post-period end.

Shoe Zone's stock price plunged Wednesday after the high street footwear retailer halved its profit forecasts for the current year and canceled its dividend. The company said that it experienced "challenging trading conditions" over June and July, blaming the ongoing negative impact from the government's Autumn budget last year on consumer confidence. "We have seen less discretionary spend, with the continued impact of inflation, interest rates and higher savings rates, all of which have decreased footfall, with a resultant reduction in revenue and profit," Shoe Zone said in a statement to the market.

Bookmaker Entain reported a better-than-expected H1 performance on Tuesday, with strong momentum across its UK, US, and Brazilian operations prompting an upgrade to FY guidance. Entain said total net gaming revenues rose 7% year-on-year to £2.63bn, while underlying earnings climbed 11% to £583m. UK and Ireland online operations led the charge with 21% growth, reflecting market share recovery and enhanced customer engagement. Its Brazilian arm also posted a 21% increase, principally due to its newly regulated framework.

UK housing company Bellway said it expected to build 9.600 homes in fiscal 2026 after total completions in the year to July 31 rose 14.3% to 8,749, slightly ahead of guidance. The company on Tuesday said it now expected to maintain "broadly flat" average outlet numbers for fiscal 2026. Average selling prices for the year just completed came in at around £316,000, compared with £307,909 a year ago, also ahead of guidance.

Property investor and developer Derwent London said Tuesday it had seen strong leasing activity and rising rental values throughout H1. Derwent London said demand for its high-quality office spaces in central London had remained well above the long-term average, with supply constraints supporting pricing power. Gross rental income ticked up 1.5% year-on-year to £109.1m, while net rental income dipped 1.1% to £94.0m. EPRA earnings per share slipped 0.9% to 52.2p, though IFRS pre-tax profits rebounded to £94.0m from a £27.2m loss a year earlier.

Defence and security firm Qinetiq said on Tuesday that as part of its US restructuring programme, it has agreed to sell its non-core Federal IT Services business to V2X for $31. The business sale, which includes data and cyber services, is expected to complete before the end of September. Qinetiq said the divestiture demonstrates "the disciplined execution of our strategy and capital allocation policy in action".

Drugmaker GSK moved closer to expanding its antibiotic portfolio Monday after US regulators accepted its application to review gepotidacin as a potential oral treatment for gonorrhoea. The FDA's priority review follows positive phase III data from the EAGLE-1 trial, which showed gepotidacin delivered a 92.6% success rate at the urogenital site, compared to 91.2% for the standard combination of intramuscular ceftriaxone and oral azithromycin.

Fintech business Plus500 posted a solid set of H1 results on Monday, with strategic expansion and product diversification helping it maintain momentum across its trading platform business. Revenues rose 4% year-on-year to $415.1m, while underlying earnings ticked up 1% to $185.1m. EBITDA margins dipped slightly from 46% to 45%, reflecting increased investment in growth initiatives. Plus500 said active customer numbers grew 2% to 179,931, with average revenue per user up 2% to $2,307. Acquisition costs per customer fell 17% to $1,237, supporting profitability.

Landscaping products manufacturer Marshalls said Monday that modest revenue growth had been offset by a sharp drop in profitability in H1, as challenging market conditions continued to weigh on its core landscaping division. Marshalls said its diversified portfolio had helped to cushion the blow, but warned that end-market overcapacity and pricing pressures remained key headwinds.

Production company Diversified Energy said Monday both production and cash flow had improved in Q2, underscoring the benefits of its recent Maverick acquisition and leading it to reiterate FY guidance. Diversified Energy said revenues surged 73% year-on-year to $510m, driven by a 33% jump in production to 1,149 MMcfepd, while adjusted underlying earnings more than doubled, rising 103% to $280m, while adjusted free cash flow climbed 38% to $88m despite $25m in one-off transaction costs. Diversified also highlighted that margins had remained resilient, with adjusted cost per unit up slightly to $2.21/Mcfe from $2.11/Mcfe in Q1.

Economic news

Signs of a potential recovery in the UK housing market have begun to "falter", according to a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) on Thursday, while the number of new properties for rent has fallen at its fastest rate since the pandemic. The RICS UK Residential Survey for July showed that both buyer demand and agreed sales have dropped back into negative territory. The net balance of estate agents reporting new buyer enquiries fell to -6% from +4% in June, while the agreed sales net balance fell to -16% from -4%. At the same time, the supply net balance was +9% in July, reflecting an increase in the flow of new listings coming onto the market.

UK economic growth slowed in the second quarter, albeit less than expected, according to figures released Thursday by the Office for National Statistics. The economy grew 0.3% following 0.7% growth in the first quarter, and versus expectations for a 0.1% expansion. The ONS said growth was driven by increases of 0.4% in services and 1.2% in construction, while growth in the production sector fell 0.3%. In the month of June, the economy grew 0.4%.

Ministers have reportedly lined up insolvency practitioners to prepare for Thames Water's potential collapse. According to Sky News, environment secretary Steve Reed has signed off the appointment of FTI Consulting to advise on contingency plans for Thames Water to be placed into a Special Administration regime (SAR). Sources told Sky on Tuesday that the advisory role established FTI Consulting as the frontrunner to act as the company's administrator if it fails to secure a private sector bailout - although approval of such an appointment would be decided in court.

The UK unemployment rate was steady at a four-year high in three months to June, while vacancies fell, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.7%. Meanwhile, average earnings growth excluding bonuses was unchanged at 5%, while total pay growth including bonuses was 4.6%, down from 5.0%. The data also showed that the estimated number of vacancies fell by 44,000 on the quarter, to 718,000, in May to July 2025. This was the 37th consecutive period where vacancy numbers dropped compared with the previous three months, with vacancies falling in 16 of the 18 industry sectors.

Industry data released on Tuesday showed that rising sales were not enough to fend off job losses and store closures in July. According to the latest figures from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG, total retail sales rose 2.5% year-on-year last month, up from 0.5% growth in July 2024. Meanwhile, food sales were up 3.9% in July following 3.3% growth in the same month a year earlier. Non-food sales rose 1.4% year-on-year, against a decline of 1.8% in July 2024, while in-store non-food sales were up 1.9%, versus a 3% drop in the same month a year earlier.

Europe's busiest airport Heathrow said passenger numbers were broadly flat in July, which it put down to capacity constraints. Heathrow said 7.98m passengers travelled through its terminals last month, compared with 7.980m during the same month a year earlier. Heathrow also said its busiest day was 1 August, with 270,869 passengers passing through its doors. The West London airport has reported year-on-year passenger growth of just 0.2% year-to-date, with its two runways being used at almost full capacity.

International events

US consumer sentiment declined for the first time in four months in August, according to a preliminary reading from the University of Michigan, falling to 58.6 from 61.7 in July - well below consensus forecasts of 62. August's drop was principally due to renewed concerns over inflation and a sharp deterioration in buying conditions for durable goods. The current conditions gauge fell to 60.9 from 68.0, while the expectations index eased to 57.2 from 61.7.

US retail sales rose as expected in July, according to advance figures from the Census Bureau, up 0.5% last month, extending June's 0.6% rebound. Excluding autos, core retail sales increased by 0.3%, also in line with expectations, suggesting a slight moderation in discretionary spending last month. On an annualised basis, total sales were up 5.9%, buoyed by back-to-school purchases and extended summer discounting. Automobiles remained a key driver for the second consecutive month, while non-store retailers and food services also posted gains.

A trio of leading economic indicators from China came in below estimates on Friday, with industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment figures all showing weaker rates of growth in July. Industrial production grew at a year-on-year rate of 5.7% last month, down from 6.8% in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This was below the 5.9% increase expected by economists and the slowest rate registered since November 2024, as manufacturing activity was dampened by flooding across the country and a record-breaking heatwave.

July's US producer price index revealed annual producer inflation rose by 3.3% year-on-year last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the largest 12-month increase since February. Last month's wholesale price inflation print was also well and truly ahead of the upwardly revised 2.4% increase in June and forecasts of 2.5%. On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 0.9% against June's flat reading, also ahead of the 0.2% increase expected by economists. The BLS also noted that within final demand, more than three-quarters of the broad-based advance in July was linked to final demand services, which rose 1.1%, while prices for final demand goods increased 0.7%.

Americans lined up for unemployment benefits at a decelerated pace in the week ended 9 August, according to the Labor Department. Initial jobless claims dropped to 224,000, down from the prior week's upwardly revised 227,000 print, versus market expectations of an increase to 228,000, while continuing claims decreased by 15,000 to 1.953m, better than the 1.96m print expected by economists. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average, which aims to strip out week-to-week volatility, increased by 750 from the previous week's revised level to 221,750.

Industrial output across the eurozone dropped more than expected in June, completely reversing the increase registered the month before, according to data out on Thursday from Eurostat. Seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased 1.3% over the month of June, following a 1.1% increase the month before. This was worse than the 1% decline expected by economists. Energy production was the only component of the data to show an monthly increase at 2.9%, as production decreased for intermediate goods (-0.2%), capital goods (-2.2%), durable consumer goods (-0.6%) and non-durable consumer goods (-4.7%).

Gross domestic product growth across the eurozone eased slightly in the second quarter, Eurostat confirmed on Thursday, though employment levels rose a little more than expected. Economic output increased by just 0.1% in the three months to June, with the growth rate falling significantly from the 0.6% expansion recorded in the first quarter - though in line with economists' predictions. This was the sixth successive rise in quarterly GDP growth, but the weakest rate recorded since the fourth quarter of 2023.

US mortgage applications were up by double digits in the week ended 8 August, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Mortgage applications surged 10.9% week-on-week, building on the prior week's unrevised 3.1% increase and marking the sharpest increase in mortgage demand in the last two months. Applications to refinance a mortgage, which are more sensitive to short-term changes in interest rates, shot up 23% week-on-week, while applications to purchase a home rose just 1.4%.

German inflation slowed to 1.8% in July, down from 2.0% the previous month, confirming a flash estimate, the Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday. "The rate of inflation has stabilised since the start of the year and remained unchanged again for two consecutive months," said Destatis President Ruth Brand. "Energy prices are continuing to drop and have a downward effect on overall inflation. On the other hand, the increase in service prices, in particular, remains above average and is driving up inflation."

Global oil demand is expected to rise next year on the back of economic growth despite the impact of US tariffs, according to a report released Tuesday. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast world oil demand would increase by 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast. "Economic data at the start of the second half of 2025 further confirm the resilience of global growth, despite persistent uncertainties related to US-centred trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks," OPEC said in the report.

US consumer prices edged higher in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but the pace of inflation showed signs of easing, offering a modest reprieve for both the Federal Reserve and markets. Headline CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, down from June's 0.3% increase, while on an annual basis, inflation held steady at 2.7%, suggesting that while underlying pressures remained, particularly in shelter and services, the broader inflation picture may be stabilising.

German business sentiment deteriorated more than expected in August amid disappointment over the US-EU trade deal, according to a survey released Tuesday by the ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim. The ZEW economic sentiment indicator fell to 34.7 from 52.7 in July. Meanwhile, the index for the current economic situation declined to -68.6 in August from -59.5 the month before.

The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut its main cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% - its lowest level in two years - as inflation slowed and the jobs market slackened. After a two-day policy meeting, the central bank said updated forecasts indicated core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, would ease to the middle of its 2% - 3% target range.

China's consumer inflation was flat in July while factory-gate prices fell for a 34th consecutive month, highlighting persistent weakness in domestic demand despite government efforts to curb price wars and stabilise the economy. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed the consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged year-on-year, compared with a 0.1% rise in June and defying forecasts of a slight decline. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, reversing June's 0.1% drop.

..

Email this article to a friend

or share it with one of these popular networks:


Top of Page