US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.7%
By Benjamin Chiou
Date: Friday 13 Mar 2026
(Sharecast News) - US economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised sharply lower on Friday, as consumer spending and fixed investment growth both slowed, and steep declines were seen in exports and government spending.
The second estimate of fourth-quarter real gross domestic product showed an annualised increase of just 0.7% for the final three months of last year, well below the 1.4% flash estimate released three weeks ago - which at the time was also significantly under consensus forecasts.
Analysts had widely expected the follow-up numbers to be unchanged, following the 4.4% growth registered in the third quarter.
"Real GDP was revised down 0.7 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment," according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, representing the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 1.9% in the fourth quarter, down 0.5pp from the initial estimate.
The annualised drop in exports was revised to -3.3% from -0.9% initially, marking the biggest decline since the second quarter of 2023, while the fall in imports was revised up to -1.1% from -1.3%.
Government spending and investment declined by 5.8%, worse than the 5.1% first reported, largely due to the impact of the largest US government shutdown in history that ran from 1 October to 12 November.
For 2025 as a whole, US GDP rose by 2.1%, down from 2.8% in 2024 and below the 2.2% consensus forecast.
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