UK inflation falls to 2.8% in April
By Abigail Townsend
Date: Wednesday 20 May 2026
(Sharecast News) - The UK inflation rate eased in April, official data showed on Wednesday, despite the war in the Middle East.
According to Office for National Statistics, the consumer prices index rose 2.8% in the 12 months to April, down from 3.3% in March and below consensus for 3%. The fall was driven by lower electricity and gas prices, following a reduction in the regulator's cap on charges on 1 April.
There were also smaller rises in water and sewage bills, and in vehicle excise duty, while food price inflation fell to 3% from 3.7% in the 12 months to April.
That was only partially offset by a rise in petrol and diesel prices, and in clothing and footwear prices, which rose 0.7%, all but reversing March's 0.8% decline.
However, economists still expect inflation to push higher in the coming months, after the US-Iran war sent global energy prices soaring. Data also released by the ONS on Wednesday showed that the cost of raw materials spiked 7.7% in the year to April, up from a revised 5.3% in March and well ahead of forecasts for 5.9%. Factory gate prices were also higher, rising 4%, also notably higher than consensus for 2.8%.
Core inflation, which strips out more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose by 2.5%, down on March's 3.1% rise, while CPI including owner occupiers' housing costs slowed to 3% from 3.4%.
Alpesh Paleja, deputy chief economist at the Confederation of British Industry, said: "The data does not yet fully capture the inflationary impact of developments in the Middle East. While fuel prices rose again through much of the month, higher energy costs have yet to feed through more broadly into energy-intensive parts of the inflation basket, particularly food and household utility bills. As a result, inflation is likely to rise again in the months ahead, peaking around the turn of the year.
"That said, the backdrop this time is very different from the last inflation shock. Economic growth is lukewarm, and the labour market is loosening, which should help to contain knock-on effects on wages and domestic prices."
Anna Macdonald, investment strategy director at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "Technical factors helped pull the number down, including changes to the Ofgem price cap and the timing of Easter. Even so, combined with a softening labour market, this gives the bank of England a bit more breathing space."
Prior to the US attacks on Iran, the central bank had been expected to trim rates twice this year. It has since stated that it stands ready to tackle any uplift in inflation, though to date has left the cost of borrowing unchanged.
James Smith, developed markets economist, UK, at ING, said: "Yes, UK inflation is set to rise again later this year. But the data should reassure the Bank of England that last year's food price spike hasn't triggered a wave of second-round effects across the inflation basket. Like Tuesday's jobs numbers, the data questions the need for aggressive rate hikes."
Figures from the ONS on Tuesday showed unemployed ticked higher in the first quarter while wage growth slowed.
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